With or Without You

Here’s a quick study of the Nuggets stats with and without Melo:

Stat With Without
Oreb 12.0 8.6
Dreb 32.0 33.0
FGA 85.0 81.2
FG% 45% 42%
STL 9.3 11.2
TOV 15.7 14.6
FTA 30.6 29.2

And here’s the competition in those same games:

Stat With Without
Oreb 12.5 13.8
Dreb 32.0 36.0
FGA 87.2 89.4
FG% 45% 43%
STL 8.3 9.0
TOV 17.3 14.6
FTA 19.6 20.2

Finally, The differential between the Nuggets and their opponents in those games:

Stat With Without
Oreb -0.5 -5.2
Dreb 0 -3.0
FGA -2.2 -8.4
FG% 0 -1%
STL +1.0 +2.2
TOV +1.6 0
FTA +11.0 +9.0

Some stats immediately jump out. Rebounding without Melo takes a huge hit, with the Nuggets dropping off 3.5 boards per game on the offensive end, and the differential jumping up over 5 offensive boards per game and 3 defensive boards per game. Melo’s newfound emphasis on rebounding appears to be very valuable to the team.

The Nuggets are getting far fewer shots per game without Melo as well, a 6 shot per game swing. Steal are up dramatically, possibly from AI being more aggressive?

Turnovers are up as well, substantially.

However, with the offensive efficiency dropping so dramatically, you would expect to see a dramatic dropoff in shooting percentage, and it hasn’t happened. The Nuggets are turning the ball over more, which accounts for some of the lost efficency on the offensive end.

However, here are the shooting percentages for the Nuggets for the last 5 games, ending with the Memphis win on Wednesday:

44.2%
36.0%
38.2%
42.7%
50.6%

So they are starting to figure out how to play with Carmelo. If we were to recalculate the offensive efficiency that we ran just a few days ago, the Memphis game would push them much higher up the rankings.

Will we see this translate to increased efficiency for the rest of the team when Carmelo comes back? We may see on Saturday, as Anthony has said he should be back for the home game against Charlotte.

Sans Melo

For the season, the Nuggets have been highly effective on defense, ranked 8th in the NBA in Defensive efficiency. On offense, they’ve been more middle of the pack, coming in around 20th.

With Melo out, those number have changed drastically.

With Melo:
Offensive Efficiency: 103.8 (20th)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (8th)

Without Melo:
Offensive Efficiency: 98.9 (29th) (approx)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.3 (1st) (approx)

So without Melo, they drop nearly to last place in the NBA in offense, and vault into first in defense.

Interesting.

Is success effort driven?

Prior to Melo's injury (in other words, when the Nuggets essentially have fielded the team they are going to war with down the stretch), they were

.600 6-4 against the top 9 teams in the NBA.
.400 6-9 against the middle 9 teams in the NBA.
.800 12-3 against the bottom 11 teams.

We're not saying toughness isn't a problem, but we are saying maybe actually paying attention is. The spread is essentially the same on the road as it was at home - all the percentages just drop a bit.

They win against good teams and bad teams, but against mediocre teams they are less than .500.

So is it when they go against a good team, they try, when they go against a bad team, they can't help but win, but those middle teams that they aren't pumped up for, not so much?

And now they're in 9th.