21! (part 1)

In the next 21 days the Nuggets, Trailblazers and Division leading Jazz will play ten games each. This is a critical time, with the standings showing these three division leaders only 2 games apart. It may very well be that the only way one of these teams gets homecourt advantage in the playoffs is to win the division. There’s a lot at stake.

With that in mind, we decided to break down those 10 games for each team, create some scenarios, and create a range of possible outcomes. Today we'll look at Denver, with Utah, Portland, and a comparitive analysis to follow.

Denver
(regular season record against listed after team name):

@ Portland 1-2 (must win to even series record and tiebreaker)
Utah 1-0 (must win to catch division leader)
Washington 1-0 (team is struggling lately)
@ Cleveland 1-0 (LBJ catching fire)
@ Miami 1-0 (terrible, terrible team)
@ Orlando 1-0 (will be a tough win)
Boston 0-1 (Team has started to slip, and it’s at home)
@ Chicago 1-0 (slightly better as of late)
@ Milwaukee 1-0 (better than the record)
Detroit 0-0 (very good team again)

Home/Away
4-6

Previous record against schedule
9-2

Games against teams with winning percentages of:
(5) 575+
(2) 500-575
(0) 425-500
(3) 425-

Winning percentage of opposition:
.544

Best reasonable outlook (leaving the extremes of 10 games win or loss streaks aside):
Denver could win the next three, beat either Cleveland or Orlando on the road, beat all three Miami, Chicago and Milwaukee on the road, and win one of Detroit/Boston at home). 8-2.

Worst reasonable outlook:
Lose to Portland and Utah, lose to both Cleveland and Orlando on the road, lose to Detroit and Boston at home, and lose one of the 3 remaining road games. 3-7.

Likely outlook:
Beat Portland, lose to Utah, win the next three, lose to Orlando, lose to Boston, and win two of the last three. 6-4.

Tomorrow:
Analysis of Utah’s Schedule.