@ Houston – protecting a 14 game win streak, hottest team in basketball playing at home, ultra motivated after losing Yao, will do anything to protect their playoff slot, have only lost 9 games at home, and none for a long time, 38-20.
Phoenix – fresh off the Shaq trade, desperate to prove it’s working, a team that has always had the Nuggets number, 39-19.
San Antonio – Second best team in the western conference, second hottest team to Houston, won their last 7, firing on all cylinders, 39-17
@ Utah – Playing excellent ball in the second half, 1.5 games ahead of the Nuggets for the division lead, they know it’s a huge game, have lost 3 games all year at home. 37-22.
@ San Antonio – see notes above, and have lost 5 games at home this year.
A murder’s row for Denver, this represents their next 5 games. If they play like they did against Chicago, the Bucks, or even the Clippers, they could easily lose all 5. The Houston and Utah games are huge, as they are against teams the Nuggets are directly battling for a playoff slot and so count double.
For the last three weeks the question has been “will the Nuggets make the playoffs?” Well, we’re about to find out. Go 1-4, and they’re pretty much done, barring a Utah or Houston collapse (and contrary to assumptions, Houston doesn’t seem to be grounded sans Yao. They’ll fall off a bit, but not completely. The Nuggets will have to win at a high clip to catch them.)
This is a biggest week and a half of the season. This is what we watch sports for. It’s do-or-die, or as Isiah used to say, “winning time.”
We all want to see how good this team can be. We find out right now.
Fasten your seatbelts, the ride’s about to begin…
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Cassell is free.
According to the Boston Globe, Our Favorite Alien has reached an agreement, and will sign the buyout by about 3 pm Pacific Time.
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
The Nuggets Would Terrorize Your Local Playground
Just ask Hoopshype:
"Go to any park or playground in any major city in America – from D.C. to Memphis to L.A. – and you will see pickup games with a style and rhythm of basketball unique to the outdoor run.
Or, you can watch the Denver Nuggets.
This team is super-talented and entertaining. However, their resemblance to a team getting a run on the blacktop might let them hold the court for a few hours or get regular season wins, but it won't lead to any success in the NBA playoffs.
In the tough Western Conference, it may even keep them out altogether."
Read the rest:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=7607
"Go to any park or playground in any major city in America – from D.C. to Memphis to L.A. – and you will see pickup games with a style and rhythm of basketball unique to the outdoor run.
Or, you can watch the Denver Nuggets.
This team is super-talented and entertaining. However, their resemblance to a team getting a run on the blacktop might let them hold the court for a few hours or get regular season wins, but it won't lead to any success in the NBA playoffs.
In the tough Western Conference, it may even keep them out altogether."
Read the rest:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=7607
Comment on Karl
From Slam magazine:
"Before today’s Houston gloom, you could sense a separation between the Top 7 out West, leaving that eighth spot to a battle between G-State and Denver. Not to evoke any images of team-brawls, but in a scrap, with Playoff Lives at stake, I’m going with the squad that has an actual Franchise Player (Baron), a dude name Jax, Monta From The Bottom and a coach that probably swigs gin from his Gatorade cup. Denver, if you can believe it, has played soft all year. And, until Yao’s season-ender, the Nuggs were soft-balling their coach right out of a job. I believe that.
Yao saved George Karl’s job — for now."
Read the whole article:
http://slamonline.com/online/2008/02/yaos-foot-saved-george-karls-job/
"Before today’s Houston gloom, you could sense a separation between the Top 7 out West, leaving that eighth spot to a battle between G-State and Denver. Not to evoke any images of team-brawls, but in a scrap, with Playoff Lives at stake, I’m going with the squad that has an actual Franchise Player (Baron), a dude name Jax, Monta From The Bottom and a coach that probably swigs gin from his Gatorade cup. Denver, if you can believe it, has played soft all year. And, until Yao’s season-ender, the Nuggs were soft-balling their coach right out of a job. I believe that.
Yao saved George Karl’s job — for now."
Read the whole article:
http://slamonline.com/online/2008/02/yaos-foot-saved-george-karls-job/
Monday, February 25, 2008
Sam-I-Am
Cassell is what we've needed all along. He's a thoroughly professional gamer who knows how to run a team, how to motivate teammates, and how to win. He has the cred.
He doesn't have to play big minutes, just start and finish. He takes the pressure off of AC and can still let JR play big minutes if he's hot.
He's no longer a great defender, but he knows how to limit his man. This guy is a master at the little things: how to grab just that little bit so your guy can't get off of screens, how to hook just less than what is called, etc. And he'll pass that on to the other guys.
He is big when it matters. The guy hits dagger shots all day long, has no fear, and plays hard. He can run a team of guys like Melo and Ai and Martin in his sleep.
On top of it all, he does his huge testicle dance when he hits a big three. You can't overestimate that.
I have this vision of Cassell lasting about 15 minutes in his first practice before he walks over to Karl, asks him to take the staff to lunch and leave the players alone, and then absolutely lays the wood into every last player. It might sound off the wall, but the man did almost EXACTLY that same thing when he went to the T-Wolves.
I want the baddest PG I can find. I want Cassell.
He doesn't have to play big minutes, just start and finish. He takes the pressure off of AC and can still let JR play big minutes if he's hot.
He's no longer a great defender, but he knows how to limit his man. This guy is a master at the little things: how to grab just that little bit so your guy can't get off of screens, how to hook just less than what is called, etc. And he'll pass that on to the other guys.
He is big when it matters. The guy hits dagger shots all day long, has no fear, and plays hard. He can run a team of guys like Melo and Ai and Martin in his sleep.
On top of it all, he does his huge testicle dance when he hits a big three. You can't overestimate that.
I have this vision of Cassell lasting about 15 minutes in his first practice before he walks over to Karl, asks him to take the staff to lunch and leave the players alone, and then absolutely lays the wood into every last player. It might sound off the wall, but the man did almost EXACTLY that same thing when he went to the T-Wolves.
I want the baddest PG I can find. I want Cassell.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Trade deadline - out with a whimper.
Why standing pat was bad:
Every other team in the top 8 in the west made a serious move to improve themselves. Denver did not.
Denver has a blatant need for a quality PG to move AI off the ball and allow AC to play backup. If they play AI at point, they have a blatant need for a quality 2 guard. In any case, the backcourt needs improvement either with a creator or a shooter.
Denver looks more and more to have a front court salary dump coming up. Martin at max, Melo at max, Camby and Nene at big bucks will be hard for Stan to stomach this summer unless serious noise is made in the playoffs. Neither Camby, Martin, or Nene were moved for value. We’re not saying they should have been, but it creates an issue.
Perimeter defense was not addressed, and other than AC they don’t really have anyone to play serious backcourt man on man.
Why standing pat was good:
The Nuggets have had as much or more turmoil over the last 1 ½ seasons as any other NBA team with the AI trade, Melo and JR’s suspension, injuries, Nene’s cancer, the Atkins trade, AC as the new point, etc. Some continuity can be a beneficial thing.
Just because a team makes a move it doesn’t mean they are better. Devon Harris gave the Nuggets nightmares, and replacing him with Kidd may actually help the Nuggets in a seven game series against the Mavs. The same thing could be said about Marion and Shaq in Phoenix. The Nuggets defend poorly against the high pick and roll, but well in the block. The Suns just became a more low-block oriented team. Some of these moves may be seen as panic in hindsight, and they might have brought a couple of the west teams backwards.
Some of the options, like Artest, could have created locker room problems. Where would his shots have come from?
LK is still on the team, and he’s a great value and a good player on a team in need of value due to its salary cap excesses.
JR Smith and AC could improve in the coming months, Atkins may be back, and Nene could return. That’s a significant amount of potential help.
Also consider:
The Nuggets may not be done yet. Cassell is working on a buyout, and he’s a potential impact PG pick up. Also, Brent Barry is being bought out in Seattle, most likely, so he’s a potential 2 guard with range and accuracy. While neither is a defensive specialist, they are both total professionals who take the defensive end seriously, and could help the team. Will Stan pony up for the price tag? Hard to say.
Final say:
Trading LK for Rent-Ar-test was probably a shortsighted move that had too much backfire potential. It might have worked, but it had a huge potential for problems. We’re not sorry the move wasn’t made. Not getting Lowry or West hurts Denver quite a bit. Cassell could be a better short term replacement than those guys, but he would cost bank, and the Celtics most likely have the inside track. Miller was another guy who could have greatly impacted the team, but for reasons no one understands, the 76s wanted to keep him. He might be a trade target this summer.
In the end, not making a serious trade is not as bad as some are saying. Reports that Melo is pissed, however, are worrisome.
Every other team in the top 8 in the west made a serious move to improve themselves. Denver did not.
Denver has a blatant need for a quality PG to move AI off the ball and allow AC to play backup. If they play AI at point, they have a blatant need for a quality 2 guard. In any case, the backcourt needs improvement either with a creator or a shooter.
Denver looks more and more to have a front court salary dump coming up. Martin at max, Melo at max, Camby and Nene at big bucks will be hard for Stan to stomach this summer unless serious noise is made in the playoffs. Neither Camby, Martin, or Nene were moved for value. We’re not saying they should have been, but it creates an issue.
Perimeter defense was not addressed, and other than AC they don’t really have anyone to play serious backcourt man on man.
Why standing pat was good:
The Nuggets have had as much or more turmoil over the last 1 ½ seasons as any other NBA team with the AI trade, Melo and JR’s suspension, injuries, Nene’s cancer, the Atkins trade, AC as the new point, etc. Some continuity can be a beneficial thing.
Just because a team makes a move it doesn’t mean they are better. Devon Harris gave the Nuggets nightmares, and replacing him with Kidd may actually help the Nuggets in a seven game series against the Mavs. The same thing could be said about Marion and Shaq in Phoenix. The Nuggets defend poorly against the high pick and roll, but well in the block. The Suns just became a more low-block oriented team. Some of these moves may be seen as panic in hindsight, and they might have brought a couple of the west teams backwards.
Some of the options, like Artest, could have created locker room problems. Where would his shots have come from?
LK is still on the team, and he’s a great value and a good player on a team in need of value due to its salary cap excesses.
JR Smith and AC could improve in the coming months, Atkins may be back, and Nene could return. That’s a significant amount of potential help.
Also consider:
The Nuggets may not be done yet. Cassell is working on a buyout, and he’s a potential impact PG pick up. Also, Brent Barry is being bought out in Seattle, most likely, so he’s a potential 2 guard with range and accuracy. While neither is a defensive specialist, they are both total professionals who take the defensive end seriously, and could help the team. Will Stan pony up for the price tag? Hard to say.
Final say:
Trading LK for Rent-Ar-test was probably a shortsighted move that had too much backfire potential. It might have worked, but it had a huge potential for problems. We’re not sorry the move wasn’t made. Not getting Lowry or West hurts Denver quite a bit. Cassell could be a better short term replacement than those guys, but he would cost bank, and the Celtics most likely have the inside track. Miller was another guy who could have greatly impacted the team, but for reasons no one understands, the 76s wanted to keep him. He might be a trade target this summer.
In the end, not making a serious trade is not as bad as some are saying. Reports that Melo is pissed, however, are worrisome.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Friday, February 15, 2008
Zach Randolph? Really?
Something seem wierd about the potential Zach trade. Either Nene is in worse shape than originally thought, or the plan is to turn around and move Zach, Kenyon or Nene for someone else. Do the Nets have a J-Kidd backup plan?
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Do the Nuggets really need an upgrade at 2 guard?
Otherwise known as: should JR Smith be let out of the doghouse?
As the Nuggets look at possible moves that could improve the team prior to the Feb 21st deadline, most of their focus is on getting the ball out of Iverson’s hands and bringing an exceptional point guard in for him to work with. With that looking like a more and more distant possibility, attention has turned to available 2 guards, such as Mike Miller of Memphis. However, as was shown again last night against Miami, the Nuggets have a potentially explosive 2 guard already on the roster in JR Smith. He has been in and out of the doghouse more times than we can count, but he’s now starting to get serious burn, especially when his shot is dropping.
Our question: Should he be getting serious minutes every night?
Pros:
On court, there are a number of things JR can do very well. His 3 pointing shooting percentage has increased every season in the league, with only his rookie year 4 years ago being substandard. So far this year he is shooting around 39% from downtown. That’s the highest percentage on the Nuggets for players with more than a few shots.
He also shoots very well from the stripe, at around 80% (about the same as Melo) and fairly well from the field for someone who takes so many threes, at nearly 43%.
His assist to turnover ratio is about 1:1, which is solid for a shooting 2. He brings electric athleticism, an ability to run with anyone in the league, and a positive, energetic attitude.
While his plus/minus is only about a +1, it is on the upswing.
Cons:
So what’s kept him off the court? Two things. First, he makes terrible decisions both with and without the ball. He plays exactly the same way in the 4th quarter as he does in the 1st, and when games tighten up, he tends to take risks on both offense and defense usually reserved for the beginning of the game, not during crunch time. He’ll force threes, gamble for steals, and even miss a forced dunk here and there.
Secondly, he has been terrible on defense. He has the physical tools to get the job done, but his body positioning is terrible, he can’t seem to think ahead, he gets caught in bad positions, and he tends to give away costly fouls. If you could merge AC with JR, you’d have a great defender. Smith needs to concentrate on learning how to play D, not just on giving hard effort.
Trends:
The last couple of games have been interesting for JR, as these trends have seemingly started to change. He found himself on the court for the end of regulation against Miami, and, although he had had a hot hand all night, he passed up several threes he would have taken in the past, getting the ball to Melo or AI. Obviously, Karl’s preaching is starting to affect the way he plays. On the defensive end, he was doing a good job of staying at home and playing defense with his feet. However, he started to get toasted near the end, and Karl yanked him in favor of AC (who, by the way, played about as well against Wade on the defensive end as you could possible ask for). But he’s learning.
Prognosis:
Really for the first time in more than a year, JR is starting to show flashes of a maturing player. With JR’s skill set and talent he can be a huge contributor to the club, but he needs to continue to get more and more under control. With a backcourt of AI, Carter, and a maturing, consistent JR Smith, you could have a solid three-man rotation that could be juggled based on the opponent. For this to happen, JR has to continue to improve his defense, but at least on the offensive end, he is beginning to play within the confines team ball.
The Nuggets are 7-3 over the last 10. They are starting play harder, more consistent basketball. With the upheaval their roster has seen over the last 2 years, you can make a case that what they should really do at the trade deadline is stand pat and wait for the team to gel. 31-19 is on pace for right around the best record in Nuggets history.
Perhaps the Nuggets start to lean more on a maturing JR Smith, wait for the return of Nene, and continue the improvement they have shown in the area of teamwork. A case can be made that JR is beginning to flash signs that he could become the player his body skills have always alluded to.
And he is, after all, only 22. He should be a rookie right now.
Conclusion:
Time to get JR some run. As there currently doesn’t seem to be any outside help coming, the Nuggets need a dynamic backcourt contributor to energize the team, and he’s the only option they have. It could end up being a great option, come playoff time, if he can get in the preparation work now.
As the Nuggets look at possible moves that could improve the team prior to the Feb 21st deadline, most of their focus is on getting the ball out of Iverson’s hands and bringing an exceptional point guard in for him to work with. With that looking like a more and more distant possibility, attention has turned to available 2 guards, such as Mike Miller of Memphis. However, as was shown again last night against Miami, the Nuggets have a potentially explosive 2 guard already on the roster in JR Smith. He has been in and out of the doghouse more times than we can count, but he’s now starting to get serious burn, especially when his shot is dropping.
Our question: Should he be getting serious minutes every night?
Pros:
On court, there are a number of things JR can do very well. His 3 pointing shooting percentage has increased every season in the league, with only his rookie year 4 years ago being substandard. So far this year he is shooting around 39% from downtown. That’s the highest percentage on the Nuggets for players with more than a few shots.
He also shoots very well from the stripe, at around 80% (about the same as Melo) and fairly well from the field for someone who takes so many threes, at nearly 43%.
His assist to turnover ratio is about 1:1, which is solid for a shooting 2. He brings electric athleticism, an ability to run with anyone in the league, and a positive, energetic attitude.
While his plus/minus is only about a +1, it is on the upswing.
Cons:
So what’s kept him off the court? Two things. First, he makes terrible decisions both with and without the ball. He plays exactly the same way in the 4th quarter as he does in the 1st, and when games tighten up, he tends to take risks on both offense and defense usually reserved for the beginning of the game, not during crunch time. He’ll force threes, gamble for steals, and even miss a forced dunk here and there.
Secondly, he has been terrible on defense. He has the physical tools to get the job done, but his body positioning is terrible, he can’t seem to think ahead, he gets caught in bad positions, and he tends to give away costly fouls. If you could merge AC with JR, you’d have a great defender. Smith needs to concentrate on learning how to play D, not just on giving hard effort.
Trends:
The last couple of games have been interesting for JR, as these trends have seemingly started to change. He found himself on the court for the end of regulation against Miami, and, although he had had a hot hand all night, he passed up several threes he would have taken in the past, getting the ball to Melo or AI. Obviously, Karl’s preaching is starting to affect the way he plays. On the defensive end, he was doing a good job of staying at home and playing defense with his feet. However, he started to get toasted near the end, and Karl yanked him in favor of AC (who, by the way, played about as well against Wade on the defensive end as you could possible ask for). But he’s learning.
Prognosis:
Really for the first time in more than a year, JR is starting to show flashes of a maturing player. With JR’s skill set and talent he can be a huge contributor to the club, but he needs to continue to get more and more under control. With a backcourt of AI, Carter, and a maturing, consistent JR Smith, you could have a solid three-man rotation that could be juggled based on the opponent. For this to happen, JR has to continue to improve his defense, but at least on the offensive end, he is beginning to play within the confines team ball.
The Nuggets are 7-3 over the last 10. They are starting play harder, more consistent basketball. With the upheaval their roster has seen over the last 2 years, you can make a case that what they should really do at the trade deadline is stand pat and wait for the team to gel. 31-19 is on pace for right around the best record in Nuggets history.
Perhaps the Nuggets start to lean more on a maturing JR Smith, wait for the return of Nene, and continue the improvement they have shown in the area of teamwork. A case can be made that JR is beginning to flash signs that he could become the player his body skills have always alluded to.
And he is, after all, only 22. He should be a rookie right now.
Conclusion:
Time to get JR some run. As there currently doesn’t seem to be any outside help coming, the Nuggets need a dynamic backcourt contributor to energize the team, and he’s the only option they have. It could end up being a great option, come playoff time, if he can get in the preparation work now.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Help On The Way...
A look at some of the trade rumors and possibilities. Who would work, who wouldn’t and why.
Ron Artest
Contract:
Approximately 8 million this year, and he can opt out next year. His agent has already said he thinks Artest is a 14-15 million/year player. For the Nuggets, this essentially means that they have to get rid of a player next year unless Stan Kroenke wants to go an additional 20 mil or so over the salary cap. Probably not gonna happen. So, if the Nuggets trade for Artest, they keep their core intact for this season only, and then they either don’t re-sign him, or find a trade partner for K-Mart, Camby, AI or Nene. This is essentially a short term rental.
On court pluses:
Tenacious D. Seriously tenacious. Also an active, skilled body who will gather offensive rebounds, score garbage points, and run the floor. A borderline all-star when fully functional.
On court minus:
Wants plays to be run for him, and that’s not what the Nuggets need him for. Would have to play 2, moving AI back to point, and Iverson is not a point guard, nor does he want to be one. Shoots 32% from the arc, so doesn’t help 3-point shooting woes.
Further considerations:
Would probably require giving up LK and JR. JR is probably moving in any deal. LK is one of the most promising 3s in the league, and giving him up for a half season of Ron Ron feel short sited and not of equal value to the sacrifice.
Final thought:
A bad deal for the Nuggets
Jason Kidd
Contract:
Approximately 20 mil both this and next year, after which he’ll want an extension that he probably won’t be worth. It’s a large enough contract that the Nuggets will have to match it this year, and won’t be able to absorb the luxury tax unless they send a large deal to NJ or another team (such as Kenyon or Nene.)
On court pluses:
Still one of the 4 best PGs in the L. Truly makes everyone around him better. Melo would probably score 5 more/game, Martin and Nene would thrive, and team would increase offensive efficiency. Worked wonders with the National team (on which Melo shined.)
On court minuses:
Terrible on the ball defender. Slowing daily. Cannot shoot. At all. Makes three-ball problem much worse.
Further considerations:
Would have to give up either Nene or Kenyon to get him, which leaves the Nuggets thin up front – especially if it’s K-Mart. Again, JR goes in the deal, which is gonna happen no matter what. Might have to give up LK instead or in addition, which hurts a lot for the future.
Final thought:
Not a bad deal, but not spectacular. Nuggets lose valuable skill and size up front, and weaken in shooting and defense. Kidd is so spectacular on offense that he might more than make it up, and he is a veteran leader who has been to the finals before.
Mike Miller
Contract:
2 years left on his deal after this one at 8 mil/per. The Nuggets, as they would be keeping him long term, would look to slough off enough in salary to make it a wash. He might be had for JR plus an expiring Eddie Najera.
On court pluses:
6’-7” shooting guard, which eliminates much of the Nuggets small backcourt problem. Brings 43% trey shooting and 50% field shooting, 17 ppg, and nearly 3 assists per game to the floor. While not a great defender, works hard and has enough length to be adequate. Will spread the floor.
On court minuses:
Can’t guard elite 2 guards. Forces AI to play point. Not a greyhound.
Further considerations:
Would have to give up Eddie to get him, most likely, or LK. Either would be a big loss. Would send LK further down the bench if he doesn’t move, also a problem. No true PG on the Nuggets save AC (and Atkins, if he returns.) Still has more time on his deal.
Final thought:
If the Nuggets can’t get an upgrade at PG, not a bad idea.
Sam I Am (Cassell)
Contract:
Last year of a 6.5 million dollar deal. Dude is old (38). He can probably be had for whatever contracts the Nuggets want to send that way, such as Eddie or JR+ Atkins (and the Clips would then waive Atkins.) Another possibility is that Sam agrees to a buy out and the Nuggets sign him that way.
On court pluses:
Veteran point guard leadership. Hits big shots in big games. Can come in and run starting point guard day one. Would instantly be the biggest leader on the team. Dances around court mimicking an emormous set of nuts after he hits a big three. Lets AI run at 2 guard.
On court minuses:
Old as dirt. Defense is lacking these days. Can’t run like AC can. Can’t guard elite 2 guards. Old as dirt. Do you really want to resign him after the season? Old as dirt.
Further considerations:
Would add toughness and professionalism to a team sorely in need of both. Has greatly improved every team he has gone to. Tough as nails.
Final thought:
If the Nuggets can get him cheap, he’d be a great addition.
Andre Miller
Contract:
Nearly 10 mil per, expiring a year after this year.
On court pluses:
Solid defender, pure point guard, would move AI to 2 guard and is tall enough to guard opponents’ shooting guards. Will pass first and will improve the rest of the team at both ends of the floor. Karl loves him.
On court minuses:
Cannot shoot the three, which creates a problem, since the Nuggets have few 3 point shooters in the starting unit. Doesn’t naturally run.
Further considerations:
Would the Nuggets really make a move to get him back? Would have to trade away Kmart, Nene or Camby to make the deal work. Philly might take Nene for him. Tough to make that sacrifice. Might have to be a three-team deal.
Final thought:
Even with the shooting and running issues, should be a solid upgrade for the team, providing you don’t have to mortgage the future to get him.
Other interesting possibilities:
Calderon for LK (give up future solid three that is stuck behind CA for a promising PG – but the Nuggets probably get the short end of the talent stick here.)
Crittenton (trade restriction) or Navarro for JR or Eddie (neither has enough skill to impact this season, but could be a PG of the future.)
Ron Artest
Contract:
Approximately 8 million this year, and he can opt out next year. His agent has already said he thinks Artest is a 14-15 million/year player. For the Nuggets, this essentially means that they have to get rid of a player next year unless Stan Kroenke wants to go an additional 20 mil or so over the salary cap. Probably not gonna happen. So, if the Nuggets trade for Artest, they keep their core intact for this season only, and then they either don’t re-sign him, or find a trade partner for K-Mart, Camby, AI or Nene. This is essentially a short term rental.
On court pluses:
Tenacious D. Seriously tenacious. Also an active, skilled body who will gather offensive rebounds, score garbage points, and run the floor. A borderline all-star when fully functional.
On court minus:
Wants plays to be run for him, and that’s not what the Nuggets need him for. Would have to play 2, moving AI back to point, and Iverson is not a point guard, nor does he want to be one. Shoots 32% from the arc, so doesn’t help 3-point shooting woes.
Further considerations:
Would probably require giving up LK and JR. JR is probably moving in any deal. LK is one of the most promising 3s in the league, and giving him up for a half season of Ron Ron feel short sited and not of equal value to the sacrifice.
Final thought:
A bad deal for the Nuggets
Jason Kidd
Contract:
Approximately 20 mil both this and next year, after which he’ll want an extension that he probably won’t be worth. It’s a large enough contract that the Nuggets will have to match it this year, and won’t be able to absorb the luxury tax unless they send a large deal to NJ or another team (such as Kenyon or Nene.)
On court pluses:
Still one of the 4 best PGs in the L. Truly makes everyone around him better. Melo would probably score 5 more/game, Martin and Nene would thrive, and team would increase offensive efficiency. Worked wonders with the National team (on which Melo shined.)
On court minuses:
Terrible on the ball defender. Slowing daily. Cannot shoot. At all. Makes three-ball problem much worse.
Further considerations:
Would have to give up either Nene or Kenyon to get him, which leaves the Nuggets thin up front – especially if it’s K-Mart. Again, JR goes in the deal, which is gonna happen no matter what. Might have to give up LK instead or in addition, which hurts a lot for the future.
Final thought:
Not a bad deal, but not spectacular. Nuggets lose valuable skill and size up front, and weaken in shooting and defense. Kidd is so spectacular on offense that he might more than make it up, and he is a veteran leader who has been to the finals before.
Mike Miller
Contract:
2 years left on his deal after this one at 8 mil/per. The Nuggets, as they would be keeping him long term, would look to slough off enough in salary to make it a wash. He might be had for JR plus an expiring Eddie Najera.
On court pluses:
6’-7” shooting guard, which eliminates much of the Nuggets small backcourt problem. Brings 43% trey shooting and 50% field shooting, 17 ppg, and nearly 3 assists per game to the floor. While not a great defender, works hard and has enough length to be adequate. Will spread the floor.
On court minuses:
Can’t guard elite 2 guards. Forces AI to play point. Not a greyhound.
Further considerations:
Would have to give up Eddie to get him, most likely, or LK. Either would be a big loss. Would send LK further down the bench if he doesn’t move, also a problem. No true PG on the Nuggets save AC (and Atkins, if he returns.) Still has more time on his deal.
Final thought:
If the Nuggets can’t get an upgrade at PG, not a bad idea.
Sam I Am (Cassell)
Contract:
Last year of a 6.5 million dollar deal. Dude is old (38). He can probably be had for whatever contracts the Nuggets want to send that way, such as Eddie or JR+ Atkins (and the Clips would then waive Atkins.) Another possibility is that Sam agrees to a buy out and the Nuggets sign him that way.
On court pluses:
Veteran point guard leadership. Hits big shots in big games. Can come in and run starting point guard day one. Would instantly be the biggest leader on the team. Dances around court mimicking an emormous set of nuts after he hits a big three. Lets AI run at 2 guard.
On court minuses:
Old as dirt. Defense is lacking these days. Can’t run like AC can. Can’t guard elite 2 guards. Old as dirt. Do you really want to resign him after the season? Old as dirt.
Further considerations:
Would add toughness and professionalism to a team sorely in need of both. Has greatly improved every team he has gone to. Tough as nails.
Final thought:
If the Nuggets can get him cheap, he’d be a great addition.
Andre Miller
Contract:
Nearly 10 mil per, expiring a year after this year.
On court pluses:
Solid defender, pure point guard, would move AI to 2 guard and is tall enough to guard opponents’ shooting guards. Will pass first and will improve the rest of the team at both ends of the floor. Karl loves him.
On court minuses:
Cannot shoot the three, which creates a problem, since the Nuggets have few 3 point shooters in the starting unit. Doesn’t naturally run.
Further considerations:
Would the Nuggets really make a move to get him back? Would have to trade away Kmart, Nene or Camby to make the deal work. Philly might take Nene for him. Tough to make that sacrifice. Might have to be a three-team deal.
Final thought:
Even with the shooting and running issues, should be a solid upgrade for the team, providing you don’t have to mortgage the future to get him.
Other interesting possibilities:
Calderon for LK (give up future solid three that is stuck behind CA for a promising PG – but the Nuggets probably get the short end of the talent stick here.)
Crittenton (trade restriction) or Navarro for JR or Eddie (neither has enough skill to impact this season, but could be a PG of the future.)
Saturday, February 9, 2008
Ummm, that's better.
Regarding the points about Melo's offensive shortcomings in the post below...
...never mind.
One game does not a trend make, but last night Carmelo was not only decisive with the ball, either shooting it, passing it, or waiting till the double team came and then finding the open teammate, but he was feeling it and didn't let the Wiz off the hook.
It wasn't quite the eff-you offensive attack we might want to see, but it wasn't that type of intense game as the Nuggets got control early and cruised.
Let's see if he can produce this type of performance against a high-quality team (the Wiz are missing three key people).
For now however, he answered the bell as well as possible under the circumstances.
Congratulations on a new career high, CA.
...never mind.
One game does not a trend make, but last night Carmelo was not only decisive with the ball, either shooting it, passing it, or waiting till the double team came and then finding the open teammate, but he was feeling it and didn't let the Wiz off the hook.
It wasn't quite the eff-you offensive attack we might want to see, but it wasn't that type of intense game as the Nuggets got control early and cruised.
Let's see if he can produce this type of performance against a high-quality team (the Wiz are missing three key people).
For now however, he answered the bell as well as possible under the circumstances.
Congratulations on a new career high, CA.
Friday, February 8, 2008
When it's Wednesday Every Day
Why the Nuggets can’t get over the hump.
The Nuggets are barely on the right side of the playoff pool, sliding around from 6th to 9th depending on the day of the week. On paper, they have massive talent, with reps in the West All-Star starting 5, the defensive player of the year (who some feel should have been in the All-Star game), a solid point guard, a former Eastern Conference All-Star returning to his previous form, and a very solid bench. Even without Nene and Atkins, both out for extended periods, Denver is one of the most talented teams in the league on paper.
So what are they doing lurking around the bottom of the playoff race?
Granted, injuries have hurt, with Nene and Atkins out for extended periods and others, most notably Martin, out for spot duty. Melo has missed 5 games, and Camby a handful as well. This, however, does not explain the problem. Just ask LA, who is still succeeding with Bynum out, or Washington, exceeding expectations on a skeleton crew.
What is going on with the Nuggets?
Glad you asked. It ain’t one thing. It’s a number of items, all increasing the degree of difficulty beyond what it has to be.
Franchise cornerstone, and unstoppable scoring force Carmelo Anthony.
Yeah, hate to say it, but Melo is part of the problem. He’s an incredible scorer, who is completely unstoppable one-on-one. He has raised his defensive effort this year, and it’s helped. He also has begun to assert himself into the rebounding sub-game, and he is now a 25-8 guy most nights. I think we lose track of how incredibly rare this is. Melo is the franchise.
He also has no idea how to play basketball.
It isn’t his fault. Nobody ever taught him. Not on the AAU circuit, not at Oak Hill (laughable), not Jimmy B. Karl has started to, and it’s had two unintended consequences on the offense. He holds the ball too long, and he’s lost his eff-you aggressiveness. We don’t see the kind of extended periods that he used to flaunt in high school, college, and even his rookie year, where he just dominated the offensive end. That has been harnessed by a desire to play the game the right way, and that’s commendable. Now, however, he needs to learn how to stay in control and still unleash what he is capable of, in the way Wade won the championship, or how LBJ scored the last 25 points to win a playoff game.
He also stalls the ball when he gets it on offense. This slowing down of the game allows him to make good decisions, but it also robs him and his team of the flow on the offensive end. Melo needs to get past this habit, and soon.
It’s not just Melo. This is a team of players with weird little flaws that hurt their performance. AI and his need to score with the ball in his hands, and his size on defense. Camby’s inability to bang inside or play one-on-one D. Carter and his shooting history. JR and his incomprehension of team play. These guys need to make a commitment to fix these little, mostly mental, flaws in their game. Increased attention to problem number 3, below, would hide a lot of these issues.
Veteran leadership.
There really isn’t any. Camby is the closest, but he’s not a dominant personality. AI has been through the wars, but he’s never been a team leader through anything but example. Melo is just too young, and has never been deep into the playoffs. Martin? Maybe, as he works back in. There is just a void here.
It shows up in a lack of execution down the stretch, in wavering commitment, in a loss of workmanlike performance.
Plays like AC whipping a crosscourt lob pass into three defenders up three with 45 seconds left in the Utah game. Halves like the last few games, with opponents shooting 55% in the first two quarters. Plays drawn up by Karl breaking down immediately when the players try to execute them. In loses to middle of the road teams that they should beat, and quotes from players along the lines of “we need to maintain our intensity from the opening tip instead of waiting for them to hit us first.”
As an aside, this is why a player like Sam Cassell could be such an important addition to the Nuggets.
Teamwork
Down the stretch against Utah, Denver and the Jazz are essentially trading baskets. If you have it on tape, go back and watch. Nearly ever basket the Nuggets made was a phenomenal individual play, like Melo’s baseline turnaround at the shot clock buzzer, or Martin’s catch and finish of AI’s drop pass. Nearly every basket the Jazz made was a straightforward basketball play, like Deron’s wide open three or Harpring’s jumper off the pick. The Nuggets make the game harder by not working together.
This is deeply ingrained in the mindset of the team. AI creates for himself. Melo holds the ball and stops the flow, then makes his own scoring opportunities. Camby takes his top of the key jumper. This list goes on. Denver is 7th in the league in assists, but when this stat is pace adjusted, they fall near the bottom of the league. Meanwhile, they give up the most assists in the NBA.
It shows up on defense also. On the Deron trey to tie the Jazz game in regulation, Iverson ran into the pick, then looked as if he had no idea what to do. By the time he gathered himself and looked around to see an open Deron, it was too late. The Nuggets, for whatever reason, still have not gelled into a cohesive group on either end of the court.
The fix? Simple. These three items need to change. The players know they need to change. Habits are hard to break, however, and it’s an uphill battle. You can trade for someone like Cassell, and that can help quite a bit, but in the end, the players have to make the shift one by one. Perhaps steady playing time as a unit with all the pieces intact will take care of the issues. Perhaps they are pacing themselves till the All-Star game, and will string together Ws after the break, as they often do.
In any case, until these issues are addressed, the Nuggets are up against their glass ceiling in the West, a good team that could be great, but can’t quite get there.
Players avoiding their bad habits, someone stepping up to lead the team into battle every minute of every game, and playing as a cohesive unit. Every great team scores high marks in these areas.
That’s what it will take. Watch the improvement in those areas, and watch the win-loss column. They’ll move together.
The Nuggets are barely on the right side of the playoff pool, sliding around from 6th to 9th depending on the day of the week. On paper, they have massive talent, with reps in the West All-Star starting 5, the defensive player of the year (who some feel should have been in the All-Star game), a solid point guard, a former Eastern Conference All-Star returning to his previous form, and a very solid bench. Even without Nene and Atkins, both out for extended periods, Denver is one of the most talented teams in the league on paper.
So what are they doing lurking around the bottom of the playoff race?
Granted, injuries have hurt, with Nene and Atkins out for extended periods and others, most notably Martin, out for spot duty. Melo has missed 5 games, and Camby a handful as well. This, however, does not explain the problem. Just ask LA, who is still succeeding with Bynum out, or Washington, exceeding expectations on a skeleton crew.
What is going on with the Nuggets?
Glad you asked. It ain’t one thing. It’s a number of items, all increasing the degree of difficulty beyond what it has to be.
Franchise cornerstone, and unstoppable scoring force Carmelo Anthony.
Yeah, hate to say it, but Melo is part of the problem. He’s an incredible scorer, who is completely unstoppable one-on-one. He has raised his defensive effort this year, and it’s helped. He also has begun to assert himself into the rebounding sub-game, and he is now a 25-8 guy most nights. I think we lose track of how incredibly rare this is. Melo is the franchise.
He also has no idea how to play basketball.
It isn’t his fault. Nobody ever taught him. Not on the AAU circuit, not at Oak Hill (laughable), not Jimmy B. Karl has started to, and it’s had two unintended consequences on the offense. He holds the ball too long, and he’s lost his eff-you aggressiveness. We don’t see the kind of extended periods that he used to flaunt in high school, college, and even his rookie year, where he just dominated the offensive end. That has been harnessed by a desire to play the game the right way, and that’s commendable. Now, however, he needs to learn how to stay in control and still unleash what he is capable of, in the way Wade won the championship, or how LBJ scored the last 25 points to win a playoff game.
He also stalls the ball when he gets it on offense. This slowing down of the game allows him to make good decisions, but it also robs him and his team of the flow on the offensive end. Melo needs to get past this habit, and soon.
It’s not just Melo. This is a team of players with weird little flaws that hurt their performance. AI and his need to score with the ball in his hands, and his size on defense. Camby’s inability to bang inside or play one-on-one D. Carter and his shooting history. JR and his incomprehension of team play. These guys need to make a commitment to fix these little, mostly mental, flaws in their game. Increased attention to problem number 3, below, would hide a lot of these issues.
Veteran leadership.
There really isn’t any. Camby is the closest, but he’s not a dominant personality. AI has been through the wars, but he’s never been a team leader through anything but example. Melo is just too young, and has never been deep into the playoffs. Martin? Maybe, as he works back in. There is just a void here.
It shows up in a lack of execution down the stretch, in wavering commitment, in a loss of workmanlike performance.
Plays like AC whipping a crosscourt lob pass into three defenders up three with 45 seconds left in the Utah game. Halves like the last few games, with opponents shooting 55% in the first two quarters. Plays drawn up by Karl breaking down immediately when the players try to execute them. In loses to middle of the road teams that they should beat, and quotes from players along the lines of “we need to maintain our intensity from the opening tip instead of waiting for them to hit us first.”
As an aside, this is why a player like Sam Cassell could be such an important addition to the Nuggets.
Teamwork
Down the stretch against Utah, Denver and the Jazz are essentially trading baskets. If you have it on tape, go back and watch. Nearly ever basket the Nuggets made was a phenomenal individual play, like Melo’s baseline turnaround at the shot clock buzzer, or Martin’s catch and finish of AI’s drop pass. Nearly every basket the Jazz made was a straightforward basketball play, like Deron’s wide open three or Harpring’s jumper off the pick. The Nuggets make the game harder by not working together.
This is deeply ingrained in the mindset of the team. AI creates for himself. Melo holds the ball and stops the flow, then makes his own scoring opportunities. Camby takes his top of the key jumper. This list goes on. Denver is 7th in the league in assists, but when this stat is pace adjusted, they fall near the bottom of the league. Meanwhile, they give up the most assists in the NBA.
It shows up on defense also. On the Deron trey to tie the Jazz game in regulation, Iverson ran into the pick, then looked as if he had no idea what to do. By the time he gathered himself and looked around to see an open Deron, it was too late. The Nuggets, for whatever reason, still have not gelled into a cohesive group on either end of the court.
The fix? Simple. These three items need to change. The players know they need to change. Habits are hard to break, however, and it’s an uphill battle. You can trade for someone like Cassell, and that can help quite a bit, but in the end, the players have to make the shift one by one. Perhaps steady playing time as a unit with all the pieces intact will take care of the issues. Perhaps they are pacing themselves till the All-Star game, and will string together Ws after the break, as they often do.
In any case, until these issues are addressed, the Nuggets are up against their glass ceiling in the West, a good team that could be great, but can’t quite get there.
Players avoiding their bad habits, someone stepping up to lead the team into battle every minute of every game, and playing as a cohesive unit. Every great team scores high marks in these areas.
That’s what it will take. Watch the improvement in those areas, and watch the win-loss column. They’ll move together.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
21! (part 3)
Schedule Comparison:
Between the three teams, the first thing that jumps out is the difference in the quality of the opposition. Denver plays 7 teams above .500, with the winning percentage of the ten teams averaging .544. Utah, on the other hand, plays only winning teams, with a winning percentage of .473. Portland is in the middle at 5 winning teams and a percentage of .515.
This would give a decided advantage to Utah over the next three weeks.
Interestingly, of the three teams, the Nuggets have performed best against their future 10 foes, with a mark of 9-2 this year so far. Utah is close behind at 9-3, while the Trailblazers settle for 8-6.
The Nuggets are the only ones of the three that could reasonably lose 7 games in the span (which is probably reduced to 6 with the Portland win.) The other two are more likely to bottom out around .500. With the Nuggets 2 wins behind the Jazz, it is very possible that that lead could grow over the next three weeks to a 3 or 4 game advantage. While we might have expected Portland to gain on Denver, they may have given up that chance with the loss at home on Monday.
Most likely, we will see Utah extend their now one game lead of the Nuggets to 2 or three over the next 10 games. This means that tonight’s game between the Jazz and Nuggets is huge. If the Nuggets win, the teams probably stay even over the period, with the Jazz maintaining their one game lead, but if the Jazz come into Denver and knock off the Nuggets, then the lead may be 3 games or so come the last week of February.
As for Portland, we would have expected them to start sliding away this week, but their schedule affords them 4 games against terrible teams, so with just one or two wins against better competition, they will stay in the hunt.
At the end of this stretch there will be just over 30 games left. Both the Jazz and the Trailblazers have had major win streaks this year, while the Nuggets, as yet, have not. Such a streak could very well determine the conference champ. Denver has a history of such streaks in recent years, usually late in the season. Is the team waiting till after the All-Star break? They have in the past.
We’ll check back in 21 days. It’s getting interesting.
Between the three teams, the first thing that jumps out is the difference in the quality of the opposition. Denver plays 7 teams above .500, with the winning percentage of the ten teams averaging .544. Utah, on the other hand, plays only winning teams, with a winning percentage of .473. Portland is in the middle at 5 winning teams and a percentage of .515.
This would give a decided advantage to Utah over the next three weeks.
Interestingly, of the three teams, the Nuggets have performed best against their future 10 foes, with a mark of 9-2 this year so far. Utah is close behind at 9-3, while the Trailblazers settle for 8-6.
The Nuggets are the only ones of the three that could reasonably lose 7 games in the span (which is probably reduced to 6 with the Portland win.) The other two are more likely to bottom out around .500. With the Nuggets 2 wins behind the Jazz, it is very possible that that lead could grow over the next three weeks to a 3 or 4 game advantage. While we might have expected Portland to gain on Denver, they may have given up that chance with the loss at home on Monday.
Most likely, we will see Utah extend their now one game lead of the Nuggets to 2 or three over the next 10 games. This means that tonight’s game between the Jazz and Nuggets is huge. If the Nuggets win, the teams probably stay even over the period, with the Jazz maintaining their one game lead, but if the Jazz come into Denver and knock off the Nuggets, then the lead may be 3 games or so come the last week of February.
As for Portland, we would have expected them to start sliding away this week, but their schedule affords them 4 games against terrible teams, so with just one or two wins against better competition, they will stay in the hunt.
At the end of this stretch there will be just over 30 games left. Both the Jazz and the Trailblazers have had major win streaks this year, while the Nuggets, as yet, have not. Such a streak could very well determine the conference champ. Denver has a history of such streaks in recent years, usually late in the season. Is the team waiting till after the All-Star break? They have in the past.
We’ll check back in 21 days. It’s getting interesting.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
21! (part 2)
Schedule analysis continued:
Utah
(regular season record against listed after team name):
New Orleans 1-0 (Utah won big)
@ Denver 0-1 (big, big game)
@ Sacramento 2-1 (team is coming back a bit)
Chicago 0-0 (still ugly)
@ Seattle 2-0 (can surprise, but bad)
Golden State 2-0 (will be a tough win, but Jazz are a better team)
@ LA Clippers 2-0 (should be 3-0)
Atlanta 0-1 (playing solid lately)
@ Minnesota 0-0 (uglier)
Detroit 0-0 (very good team again)
Home/Away
5-5
Previous record against schedule
9-3
Games against teams with winning percentages of:
(4) 575+
(0) 500-575
(2) 425-500
(4) 425-
Winning percentage of opposition:
.473
Best reasonable outlook (leaving the extremes of 10 games win or loss streaks aside):
Utah could easily win their first 9 games, with the only two really tough ones being Denver and Golden State. We’ll give them a loss to Boston, as a ten games streak is unlikely, even for a best case. 9-1.
Worst reasonable outlook:
Lose to Denver, Golden State, and Boston. A revived Sac-town creates a loss, as does Atlanta. 5-5.
Likely outlook:
Beat NO, lose to Denver and Detroit, then lose one other game to either GS at home or one of the weaker teams surprise the Jazz on the road. 7-3.
lastly:
Portland
(regular season record against listed after team name):
Denver 2-1 (Denver won)
Chicago 1-0 (still ugly)
@ Detroit 1-0 (a very good team again)
@ Indiana 0-1 (better than record)
@ Houston 0-2 (team getting tougher)
@ Dallas 1-1 (playing well, but trade rumors swirl)
Sacramento 1-0 (team is coming back a bit)
Seattle 1-0 (can surprise, but bad)
@ Seattle 1-0 (can surprise, but bad)
Boston 0-1 (slipping a bit, but very good)
Home/Away
5-5
Previous record against schedule
8-6
Games against teams with winning percentages of:
(5) 575+
(0) 500-575
(1) 425-500
(4) 425-
Winning percentage of opposition:
.515
Best reasonable outlook (leaving the extremes of 10 games win or loss streaks aside):
After losing to Denver at home, they could beat Chicago, win 3 of the 4 games on the road, then win three before losing to Boston at home. 7-3.
Worst reasonable outlook:
Lose to Denver at home, then Detroit, Houston and Dallas away, then Boston at home. Additionally, Indiana, Sac or Seattle surprises once. 4-6.
Likely outlook:
Lose to Denver, lose two of the 4 road games, and then win out till they lose to Boston. 6-4
Tomorrow:
Comparing the teams’ schedules and chances.
Utah
(regular season record against listed after team name):
New Orleans 1-0 (Utah won big)
@ Denver 0-1 (big, big game)
@ Sacramento 2-1 (team is coming back a bit)
Chicago 0-0 (still ugly)
@ Seattle 2-0 (can surprise, but bad)
Golden State 2-0 (will be a tough win, but Jazz are a better team)
@ LA Clippers 2-0 (should be 3-0)
Atlanta 0-1 (playing solid lately)
@ Minnesota 0-0 (uglier)
Detroit 0-0 (very good team again)
Home/Away
5-5
Previous record against schedule
9-3
Games against teams with winning percentages of:
(4) 575+
(0) 500-575
(2) 425-500
(4) 425-
Winning percentage of opposition:
.473
Best reasonable outlook (leaving the extremes of 10 games win or loss streaks aside):
Utah could easily win their first 9 games, with the only two really tough ones being Denver and Golden State. We’ll give them a loss to Boston, as a ten games streak is unlikely, even for a best case. 9-1.
Worst reasonable outlook:
Lose to Denver, Golden State, and Boston. A revived Sac-town creates a loss, as does Atlanta. 5-5.
Likely outlook:
Beat NO, lose to Denver and Detroit, then lose one other game to either GS at home or one of the weaker teams surprise the Jazz on the road. 7-3.
lastly:
Portland
(regular season record against listed after team name):
Denver 2-1 (Denver won)
Chicago 1-0 (still ugly)
@ Detroit 1-0 (a very good team again)
@ Indiana 0-1 (better than record)
@ Houston 0-2 (team getting tougher)
@ Dallas 1-1 (playing well, but trade rumors swirl)
Sacramento 1-0 (team is coming back a bit)
Seattle 1-0 (can surprise, but bad)
@ Seattle 1-0 (can surprise, but bad)
Boston 0-1 (slipping a bit, but very good)
Home/Away
5-5
Previous record against schedule
8-6
Games against teams with winning percentages of:
(5) 575+
(0) 500-575
(1) 425-500
(4) 425-
Winning percentage of opposition:
.515
Best reasonable outlook (leaving the extremes of 10 games win or loss streaks aside):
After losing to Denver at home, they could beat Chicago, win 3 of the 4 games on the road, then win three before losing to Boston at home. 7-3.
Worst reasonable outlook:
Lose to Denver at home, then Detroit, Houston and Dallas away, then Boston at home. Additionally, Indiana, Sac or Seattle surprises once. 4-6.
Likely outlook:
Lose to Denver, lose two of the 4 road games, and then win out till they lose to Boston. 6-4
Tomorrow:
Comparing the teams’ schedules and chances.
Monday, February 4, 2008
21! (part 1)
In the next 21 days the Nuggets, Trailblazers and Division leading Jazz will play ten games each. This is a critical time, with the standings showing these three division leaders only 2 games apart. It may very well be that the only way one of these teams gets homecourt advantage in the playoffs is to win the division. There’s a lot at stake.
With that in mind, we decided to break down those 10 games for each team, create some scenarios, and create a range of possible outcomes. Today we'll look at Denver, with Utah, Portland, and a comparitive analysis to follow.
Denver
(regular season record against listed after team name):
@ Portland 1-2 (must win to even series record and tiebreaker)
Utah 1-0 (must win to catch division leader)
Washington 1-0 (team is struggling lately)
@ Cleveland 1-0 (LBJ catching fire)
@ Miami 1-0 (terrible, terrible team)
@ Orlando 1-0 (will be a tough win)
Boston 0-1 (Team has started to slip, and it’s at home)
@ Chicago 1-0 (slightly better as of late)
@ Milwaukee 1-0 (better than the record)
Detroit 0-0 (very good team again)
Home/Away
4-6
Previous record against schedule
9-2
Games against teams with winning percentages of:
(5) 575+
(2) 500-575
(0) 425-500
(3) 425-
Winning percentage of opposition:
.544
Best reasonable outlook (leaving the extremes of 10 games win or loss streaks aside):
Denver could win the next three, beat either Cleveland or Orlando on the road, beat all three Miami, Chicago and Milwaukee on the road, and win one of Detroit/Boston at home). 8-2.
Worst reasonable outlook:
Lose to Portland and Utah, lose to both Cleveland and Orlando on the road, lose to Detroit and Boston at home, and lose one of the 3 remaining road games. 3-7.
Likely outlook:
Beat Portland, lose to Utah, win the next three, lose to Orlando, lose to Boston, and win two of the last three. 6-4.
Tomorrow:
Analysis of Utah’s Schedule.
With that in mind, we decided to break down those 10 games for each team, create some scenarios, and create a range of possible outcomes. Today we'll look at Denver, with Utah, Portland, and a comparitive analysis to follow.
Denver
(regular season record against listed after team name):
@ Portland 1-2 (must win to even series record and tiebreaker)
Utah 1-0 (must win to catch division leader)
Washington 1-0 (team is struggling lately)
@ Cleveland 1-0 (LBJ catching fire)
@ Miami 1-0 (terrible, terrible team)
@ Orlando 1-0 (will be a tough win)
Boston 0-1 (Team has started to slip, and it’s at home)
@ Chicago 1-0 (slightly better as of late)
@ Milwaukee 1-0 (better than the record)
Detroit 0-0 (very good team again)
Home/Away
4-6
Previous record against schedule
9-2
Games against teams with winning percentages of:
(5) 575+
(2) 500-575
(0) 425-500
(3) 425-
Winning percentage of opposition:
.544
Best reasonable outlook (leaving the extremes of 10 games win or loss streaks aside):
Denver could win the next three, beat either Cleveland or Orlando on the road, beat all three Miami, Chicago and Milwaukee on the road, and win one of Detroit/Boston at home). 8-2.
Worst reasonable outlook:
Lose to Portland and Utah, lose to both Cleveland and Orlando on the road, lose to Detroit and Boston at home, and lose one of the 3 remaining road games. 3-7.
Likely outlook:
Beat Portland, lose to Utah, win the next three, lose to Orlando, lose to Boston, and win two of the last three. 6-4.
Tomorrow:
Analysis of Utah’s Schedule.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Breaking Down AC
Who the hell is Anthony Carter, and why is he running my team?
We heard that question constantly a month or two ago. It’s fading out now, as Nuggets nation is getting used to this guy running the show, but as Carter has been a career backup for the last 9 years, it begs the question “what’s different?” Why has he been able to succeed here, and is he a long-term answer for the Nuggets?
Carter’s career numbers for reference:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/cartean01.html
Some interesting tidbits about Carter you may not know:
- Since he attended Community College before he played for Hawaii, he came into the league at 24 years old. He’s currently 32.
- He has played over 70 games only twice in his 9 NBA seasons – his rookie and sophomore year.
- He was the guy whose agent infamously forgot to exercise his Miami option for 4 million bucks, and ended up having to sign with the Spurs for 688k instead.
Past:
Anthony had a solid start to his career in Miami, backing up Tim Hardaway with a decent amount of success. Since then however, he has bounced around and has had a hard time making a decent impression. He was signed by the Spurs after his agent screwed up his contract extension, but only played a few games before the Spurs bought him out. He then played two seasons in Minnesota before coming to the Nuggets for the playoffs last year.
Carter has always been a good assist man. He’s averaged about 6 assists or higher for all of his non-aborted NBA seasons, and over 6 per game in college at Hawaii. He has also been a solid rebounder for a guard, a testament to his athleticism and his strength.
The knock against him has been his shooting. He has always been limited, especially from long range. A mid-30% shooter from the college arc, he hasn’t been able to dial it up in the pros – in fact, he actually got much worse. He has been reluctant to pull the trigger on the three his whole career, and for good reason. He’s only once shot better than 20% from the arc for a season, and that was 26% on only 15 shots.
Free throws have also been a problem, with his career .689 low for a lead guard, and his FG% has only topped 40% twice, and then barely. The book on Carter has been that he has good athleticism, he’s good with the ball, he’s a solid defender that will find teammates when they are open, he’ll push the pace, but he is in no way a threat to score, and that you can’t have the ball in his hands at crunch time.
The Present: Last year, something changed.
This year has exceeded anything one would have expected based on his NBA career thus far. He’s shooting 36% from the arc, 47% from the field, and 78% from the line – all career highs by far. His rebounding, assists, steals and turnovers, always strengths, have not suffered. And his defense has gone from solid to exceptional. As we all know, he’s gone from a guy who you take out at the end of the game to someone you want to have the ball in the last 2 minutes.
The change? Some is his, and some is the team.
Defense: he’s far more fundamentally sound than he used to be. As he’s lost a little speed, he’s gained a step or two in smarts, and puts on a positioning clinic every night. He now knows how to take away the advantage of his man with his positioning on the floor, and gambles less for steals than he did, now getting picks with solid rotations and anticipation. He’s one of the few Nuggets that doesn’t rely heavily on Camby for defensive backup. He can’t quite hang with the quickest points in the league, but he’ll make them work for their court position.
Pace: In the nuggets, he’s finally found a team that plays to his strength – running. He’s at his best when he can use his athleticism and finishing ability, and the Nuggets provide that opportunity. He can both throw and receive the outlet pass with the best of them, and he can finish creatively and with strength at the rim.
Shooting: Perhaps it’s the free flowing nature of the offense, perhaps it’s having a green light from his coach for the first time in his NBA career, perhaps it’s just improvement, but he can finally shoot to a respectable level. Does it continue into future games and seasons?
That’s the biggest question hounding Carter long term. Is this season a shooting aberration?
What do the Nuggets do with Carter?
Carter was never supposed to be the starter, but with Atkins down for extended time, Anthony Carter has filled in admirably. There is little question that he is a solid backup point guard. Can, or should, he be the starter? At 32, is starting to see his physical talents erode, but is making up for that with increased skill and smarts. His biggest issue is that he can no longer compete from a speed/quickness standpoint with the true jets of the league found on the elite teams such as Parker, Terry, Harris, Paul, and even Rondo, and that lack of warp drive hurts against some of the true creative, skilled and savvy masters of the point position like Nash, Billups and Williams. It hampers him on both ends of the floor, and this is magnified when you consider that his matchup changes when he is on the floor with AI and he often slides over to the opponents 2.
Future: Can you win a championship with Anthony Carter as your starting 1? Possibly, but it would require an incredible body of work by your other positions on the floor, because against the truly elite teams playing all out, Carter is not going to create a host of opportunities, and is not going to hamper the opponents offensive scheme.
Anthony is an outstanding backup point, a guy who makes few mistakes, who can come in a end game and be trusted for a “shooting five”, and who can start for chunks of time if necessary. His shooting, most likely, will remain solid as long as he continues to be rewarded with easy baskets in a running scheme. He does not have the physical characteristics of a point that would ideally be playing with AI however. He’s not a great matchup on most of the shooting guards in the league.
In the end, we love Carter, we just don’t like him at 34 minutes a night. If the Nuggets want to move forward, solidifying the 1 is something they have to strongly consider.
We heard that question constantly a month or two ago. It’s fading out now, as Nuggets nation is getting used to this guy running the show, but as Carter has been a career backup for the last 9 years, it begs the question “what’s different?” Why has he been able to succeed here, and is he a long-term answer for the Nuggets?
Carter’s career numbers for reference:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/cartean01.html
Some interesting tidbits about Carter you may not know:
- Since he attended Community College before he played for Hawaii, he came into the league at 24 years old. He’s currently 32.
- He has played over 70 games only twice in his 9 NBA seasons – his rookie and sophomore year.
- He was the guy whose agent infamously forgot to exercise his Miami option for 4 million bucks, and ended up having to sign with the Spurs for 688k instead.
Past:
Anthony had a solid start to his career in Miami, backing up Tim Hardaway with a decent amount of success. Since then however, he has bounced around and has had a hard time making a decent impression. He was signed by the Spurs after his agent screwed up his contract extension, but only played a few games before the Spurs bought him out. He then played two seasons in Minnesota before coming to the Nuggets for the playoffs last year.
Carter has always been a good assist man. He’s averaged about 6 assists or higher for all of his non-aborted NBA seasons, and over 6 per game in college at Hawaii. He has also been a solid rebounder for a guard, a testament to his athleticism and his strength.
The knock against him has been his shooting. He has always been limited, especially from long range. A mid-30% shooter from the college arc, he hasn’t been able to dial it up in the pros – in fact, he actually got much worse. He has been reluctant to pull the trigger on the three his whole career, and for good reason. He’s only once shot better than 20% from the arc for a season, and that was 26% on only 15 shots.
Free throws have also been a problem, with his career .689 low for a lead guard, and his FG% has only topped 40% twice, and then barely. The book on Carter has been that he has good athleticism, he’s good with the ball, he’s a solid defender that will find teammates when they are open, he’ll push the pace, but he is in no way a threat to score, and that you can’t have the ball in his hands at crunch time.
The Present: Last year, something changed.
This year has exceeded anything one would have expected based on his NBA career thus far. He’s shooting 36% from the arc, 47% from the field, and 78% from the line – all career highs by far. His rebounding, assists, steals and turnovers, always strengths, have not suffered. And his defense has gone from solid to exceptional. As we all know, he’s gone from a guy who you take out at the end of the game to someone you want to have the ball in the last 2 minutes.
The change? Some is his, and some is the team.
Defense: he’s far more fundamentally sound than he used to be. As he’s lost a little speed, he’s gained a step or two in smarts, and puts on a positioning clinic every night. He now knows how to take away the advantage of his man with his positioning on the floor, and gambles less for steals than he did, now getting picks with solid rotations and anticipation. He’s one of the few Nuggets that doesn’t rely heavily on Camby for defensive backup. He can’t quite hang with the quickest points in the league, but he’ll make them work for their court position.
Pace: In the nuggets, he’s finally found a team that plays to his strength – running. He’s at his best when he can use his athleticism and finishing ability, and the Nuggets provide that opportunity. He can both throw and receive the outlet pass with the best of them, and he can finish creatively and with strength at the rim.
Shooting: Perhaps it’s the free flowing nature of the offense, perhaps it’s having a green light from his coach for the first time in his NBA career, perhaps it’s just improvement, but he can finally shoot to a respectable level. Does it continue into future games and seasons?
That’s the biggest question hounding Carter long term. Is this season a shooting aberration?
What do the Nuggets do with Carter?
Carter was never supposed to be the starter, but with Atkins down for extended time, Anthony Carter has filled in admirably. There is little question that he is a solid backup point guard. Can, or should, he be the starter? At 32, is starting to see his physical talents erode, but is making up for that with increased skill and smarts. His biggest issue is that he can no longer compete from a speed/quickness standpoint with the true jets of the league found on the elite teams such as Parker, Terry, Harris, Paul, and even Rondo, and that lack of warp drive hurts against some of the true creative, skilled and savvy masters of the point position like Nash, Billups and Williams. It hampers him on both ends of the floor, and this is magnified when you consider that his matchup changes when he is on the floor with AI and he often slides over to the opponents 2.
Future: Can you win a championship with Anthony Carter as your starting 1? Possibly, but it would require an incredible body of work by your other positions on the floor, because against the truly elite teams playing all out, Carter is not going to create a host of opportunities, and is not going to hamper the opponents offensive scheme.
Anthony is an outstanding backup point, a guy who makes few mistakes, who can come in a end game and be trusted for a “shooting five”, and who can start for chunks of time if necessary. His shooting, most likely, will remain solid as long as he continues to be rewarded with easy baskets in a running scheme. He does not have the physical characteristics of a point that would ideally be playing with AI however. He’s not a great matchup on most of the shooting guards in the league.
In the end, we love Carter, we just don’t like him at 34 minutes a night. If the Nuggets want to move forward, solidifying the 1 is something they have to strongly consider.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
With or Without You
Here’s a quick study of the Nuggets stats with and without Melo:
Stat With Without
Oreb 12.0 8.6
Dreb 32.0 33.0
FGA 85.0 81.2
FG% 45% 42%
STL 9.3 11.2
TOV 15.7 14.6
FTA 30.6 29.2
And here’s the competition in those same games:
Stat With Without
Oreb 12.5 13.8
Dreb 32.0 36.0
FGA 87.2 89.4
FG% 45% 43%
STL 8.3 9.0
TOV 17.3 14.6
FTA 19.6 20.2
Finally, The differential between the Nuggets and their opponents in those games:
Stat With Without
Oreb -0.5 -5.2
Dreb 0 -3.0
FGA -2.2 -8.4
FG% 0 -1%
STL +1.0 +2.2
TOV +1.6 0
FTA +11.0 +9.0
Some stats immediately jump out. Rebounding without Melo takes a huge hit, with the Nuggets dropping off 3.5 boards per game on the offensive end, and the differential jumping up over 5 offensive boards per game and 3 defensive boards per game. Melo’s newfound emphasis on rebounding appears to be very valuable to the team.
The Nuggets are getting far fewer shots per game without Melo as well, a 6 shot per game swing. Steal are up dramatically, possibly from AI being more aggressive?
Turnovers are up as well, substantially.
However, with the offensive efficiency dropping so dramatically, you would expect to see a dramatic dropoff in shooting percentage, and it hasn’t happened. The Nuggets are turning the ball over more, which accounts for some of the lost efficency on the offensive end.
However, here are the shooting percentages for the Nuggets for the last 5 games, ending with the Memphis win on Wednesday:
44.2%
36.0%
38.2%
42.7%
50.6%
So they are starting to figure out how to play with Carmelo. If we were to recalculate the offensive efficiency that we ran just a few days ago, the Memphis game would push them much higher up the rankings.
Will we see this translate to increased efficiency for the rest of the team when Carmelo comes back? We may see on Saturday, as Anthony has said he should be back for the home game against Charlotte.
Stat With Without
Oreb 12.0 8.6
Dreb 32.0 33.0
FGA 85.0 81.2
FG% 45% 42%
STL 9.3 11.2
TOV 15.7 14.6
FTA 30.6 29.2
And here’s the competition in those same games:
Stat With Without
Oreb 12.5 13.8
Dreb 32.0 36.0
FGA 87.2 89.4
FG% 45% 43%
STL 8.3 9.0
TOV 17.3 14.6
FTA 19.6 20.2
Finally, The differential between the Nuggets and their opponents in those games:
Stat With Without
Oreb -0.5 -5.2
Dreb 0 -3.0
FGA -2.2 -8.4
FG% 0 -1%
STL +1.0 +2.2
TOV +1.6 0
FTA +11.0 +9.0
Some stats immediately jump out. Rebounding without Melo takes a huge hit, with the Nuggets dropping off 3.5 boards per game on the offensive end, and the differential jumping up over 5 offensive boards per game and 3 defensive boards per game. Melo’s newfound emphasis on rebounding appears to be very valuable to the team.
The Nuggets are getting far fewer shots per game without Melo as well, a 6 shot per game swing. Steal are up dramatically, possibly from AI being more aggressive?
Turnovers are up as well, substantially.
However, with the offensive efficiency dropping so dramatically, you would expect to see a dramatic dropoff in shooting percentage, and it hasn’t happened. The Nuggets are turning the ball over more, which accounts for some of the lost efficency on the offensive end.
However, here are the shooting percentages for the Nuggets for the last 5 games, ending with the Memphis win on Wednesday:
44.2%
36.0%
38.2%
42.7%
50.6%
So they are starting to figure out how to play with Carmelo. If we were to recalculate the offensive efficiency that we ran just a few days ago, the Memphis game would push them much higher up the rankings.
Will we see this translate to increased efficiency for the rest of the team when Carmelo comes back? We may see on Saturday, as Anthony has said he should be back for the home game against Charlotte.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Sans Melo
For the season, the Nuggets have been highly effective on defense, ranked 8th in the NBA in Defensive efficiency. On offense, they’ve been more middle of the pack, coming in around 20th.
With Melo out, those number have changed drastically.
With Melo:
Offensive Efficiency: 103.8 (20th)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (8th)
Without Melo:
Offensive Efficiency: 98.9 (29th) (approx)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.3 (1st) (approx)
So without Melo, they drop nearly to last place in the NBA in offense, and vault into first in defense.
Interesting.
With Melo out, those number have changed drastically.
With Melo:
Offensive Efficiency: 103.8 (20th)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (8th)
Without Melo:
Offensive Efficiency: 98.9 (29th) (approx)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.3 (1st) (approx)
So without Melo, they drop nearly to last place in the NBA in offense, and vault into first in defense.
Interesting.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Is success effort driven?
Prior to Melo's injury (in other words, when the Nuggets essentially have fielded the team they are going to war with down the stretch), they were
.600 6-4 against the top 9 teams in the NBA.
.400 6-9 against the middle 9 teams in the NBA.
.800 12-3 against the bottom 11 teams.
We're not saying toughness isn't a problem, but we are saying maybe actually paying attention is. The spread is essentially the same on the road as it was at home - all the percentages just drop a bit.
They win against good teams and bad teams, but against mediocre teams they are less than .500.
So is it when they go against a good team, they try, when they go against a bad team, they can't help but win, but those middle teams that they aren't pumped up for, not so much?
And now they're in 9th.
.600 6-4 against the top 9 teams in the NBA.
.400 6-9 against the middle 9 teams in the NBA.
.800 12-3 against the bottom 11 teams.
We're not saying toughness isn't a problem, but we are saying maybe actually paying attention is. The spread is essentially the same on the road as it was at home - all the percentages just drop a bit.
They win against good teams and bad teams, but against mediocre teams they are less than .500.
So is it when they go against a good team, they try, when they go against a bad team, they can't help but win, but those middle teams that they aren't pumped up for, not so much?
And now they're in 9th.
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