Breaking Down AC

Who the hell is Anthony Carter, and why is he running my team?

We heard that question constantly a month or two ago. It’s fading out now, as Nuggets nation is getting used to this guy running the show, but as Carter has been a career backup for the last 9 years, it begs the question “what’s different?” Why has he been able to succeed here, and is he a long-term answer for the Nuggets?

Carter’s career numbers for reference:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/c/cartean01.html

Some interesting tidbits about Carter you may not know:
- Since he attended Community College before he played for Hawaii, he came into the league at 24 years old. He’s currently 32.
- He has played over 70 games only twice in his 9 NBA seasons – his rookie and sophomore year.
- He was the guy whose agent infamously forgot to exercise his Miami option for 4 million bucks, and ended up having to sign with the Spurs for 688k instead.

Past:

Anthony had a solid start to his career in Miami, backing up Tim Hardaway with a decent amount of success. Since then however, he has bounced around and has had a hard time making a decent impression. He was signed by the Spurs after his agent screwed up his contract extension, but only played a few games before the Spurs bought him out. He then played two seasons in Minnesota before coming to the Nuggets for the playoffs last year.

Carter has always been a good assist man. He’s averaged about 6 assists or higher for all of his non-aborted NBA seasons, and over 6 per game in college at Hawaii. He has also been a solid rebounder for a guard, a testament to his athleticism and his strength.

The knock against him has been his shooting. He has always been limited, especially from long range. A mid-30% shooter from the college arc, he hasn’t been able to dial it up in the pros – in fact, he actually got much worse. He has been reluctant to pull the trigger on the three his whole career, and for good reason. He’s only once shot better than 20% from the arc for a season, and that was 26% on only 15 shots.

Free throws have also been a problem, with his career .689 low for a lead guard, and his FG% has only topped 40% twice, and then barely. The book on Carter has been that he has good athleticism, he’s good with the ball, he’s a solid defender that will find teammates when they are open, he’ll push the pace, but he is in no way a threat to score, and that you can’t have the ball in his hands at crunch time.

The Present: Last year, something changed.

This year has exceeded anything one would have expected based on his NBA career thus far. He’s shooting 36% from the arc, 47% from the field, and 78% from the line – all career highs by far. His rebounding, assists, steals and turnovers, always strengths, have not suffered. And his defense has gone from solid to exceptional. As we all know, he’s gone from a guy who you take out at the end of the game to someone you want to have the ball in the last 2 minutes.

The change? Some is his, and some is the team.

Defense: he’s far more fundamentally sound than he used to be. As he’s lost a little speed, he’s gained a step or two in smarts, and puts on a positioning clinic every night. He now knows how to take away the advantage of his man with his positioning on the floor, and gambles less for steals than he did, now getting picks with solid rotations and anticipation. He’s one of the few Nuggets that doesn’t rely heavily on Camby for defensive backup. He can’t quite hang with the quickest points in the league, but he’ll make them work for their court position.

Pace: In the nuggets, he’s finally found a team that plays to his strength – running. He’s at his best when he can use his athleticism and finishing ability, and the Nuggets provide that opportunity. He can both throw and receive the outlet pass with the best of them, and he can finish creatively and with strength at the rim.

Shooting: Perhaps it’s the free flowing nature of the offense, perhaps it’s having a green light from his coach for the first time in his NBA career, perhaps it’s just improvement, but he can finally shoot to a respectable level. Does it continue into future games and seasons?

That’s the biggest question hounding Carter long term. Is this season a shooting aberration?

What do the Nuggets do with Carter?

Carter was never supposed to be the starter, but with Atkins down for extended time, Anthony Carter has filled in admirably. There is little question that he is a solid backup point guard. Can, or should, he be the starter? At 32, is starting to see his physical talents erode, but is making up for that with increased skill and smarts. His biggest issue is that he can no longer compete from a speed/quickness standpoint with the true jets of the league found on the elite teams such as Parker, Terry, Harris, Paul, and even Rondo, and that lack of warp drive hurts against some of the true creative, skilled and savvy masters of the point position like Nash, Billups and Williams. It hampers him on both ends of the floor, and this is magnified when you consider that his matchup changes when he is on the floor with AI and he often slides over to the opponents 2.

Future: Can you win a championship with Anthony Carter as your starting 1? Possibly, but it would require an incredible body of work by your other positions on the floor, because against the truly elite teams playing all out, Carter is not going to create a host of opportunities, and is not going to hamper the opponents offensive scheme.

Anthony is an outstanding backup point, a guy who makes few mistakes, who can come in a end game and be trusted for a “shooting five”, and who can start for chunks of time if necessary. His shooting, most likely, will remain solid as long as he continues to be rewarded with easy baskets in a running scheme. He does not have the physical characteristics of a point that would ideally be playing with AI however. He’s not a great matchup on most of the shooting guards in the league.

In the end, we love Carter, we just don’t like him at 34 minutes a night. If the Nuggets want to move forward, solidifying the 1 is something they have to strongly consider.