Monday, February 11, 2008

Help On The Way...

A look at some of the trade rumors and possibilities. Who would work, who wouldn’t and why.

Ron Artest

Contract:
Approximately 8 million this year, and he can opt out next year. His agent has already said he thinks Artest is a 14-15 million/year player. For the Nuggets, this essentially means that they have to get rid of a player next year unless Stan Kroenke wants to go an additional 20 mil or so over the salary cap. Probably not gonna happen. So, if the Nuggets trade for Artest, they keep their core intact for this season only, and then they either don’t re-sign him, or find a trade partner for K-Mart, Camby, AI or Nene. This is essentially a short term rental.

On court pluses:
Tenacious D. Seriously tenacious. Also an active, skilled body who will gather offensive rebounds, score garbage points, and run the floor. A borderline all-star when fully functional.

On court minus:
Wants plays to be run for him, and that’s not what the Nuggets need him for. Would have to play 2, moving AI back to point, and Iverson is not a point guard, nor does he want to be one. Shoots 32% from the arc, so doesn’t help 3-point shooting woes.

Further considerations:
Would probably require giving up LK and JR. JR is probably moving in any deal. LK is one of the most promising 3s in the league, and giving him up for a half season of Ron Ron feel short sited and not of equal value to the sacrifice.

Final thought:
A bad deal for the Nuggets


Jason Kidd

Contract:
Approximately 20 mil both this and next year, after which he’ll want an extension that he probably won’t be worth. It’s a large enough contract that the Nuggets will have to match it this year, and won’t be able to absorb the luxury tax unless they send a large deal to NJ or another team (such as Kenyon or Nene.)

On court pluses:
Still one of the 4 best PGs in the L. Truly makes everyone around him better. Melo would probably score 5 more/game, Martin and Nene would thrive, and team would increase offensive efficiency. Worked wonders with the National team (on which Melo shined.)

On court minuses:
Terrible on the ball defender. Slowing daily. Cannot shoot. At all. Makes three-ball problem much worse.

Further considerations:
Would have to give up either Nene or Kenyon to get him, which leaves the Nuggets thin up front – especially if it’s K-Mart. Again, JR goes in the deal, which is gonna happen no matter what. Might have to give up LK instead or in addition, which hurts a lot for the future.

Final thought:
Not a bad deal, but not spectacular. Nuggets lose valuable skill and size up front, and weaken in shooting and defense. Kidd is so spectacular on offense that he might more than make it up, and he is a veteran leader who has been to the finals before.


Mike Miller

Contract:
2 years left on his deal after this one at 8 mil/per. The Nuggets, as they would be keeping him long term, would look to slough off enough in salary to make it a wash. He might be had for JR plus an expiring Eddie Najera.

On court pluses:
6’-7” shooting guard, which eliminates much of the Nuggets small backcourt problem. Brings 43% trey shooting and 50% field shooting, 17 ppg, and nearly 3 assists per game to the floor. While not a great defender, works hard and has enough length to be adequate. Will spread the floor.

On court minuses:
Can’t guard elite 2 guards. Forces AI to play point. Not a greyhound.

Further considerations:
Would have to give up Eddie to get him, most likely, or LK. Either would be a big loss. Would send LK further down the bench if he doesn’t move, also a problem. No true PG on the Nuggets save AC (and Atkins, if he returns.) Still has more time on his deal.


Final thought:
If the Nuggets can’t get an upgrade at PG, not a bad idea.


Sam I Am (Cassell)

Contract:
Last year of a 6.5 million dollar deal. Dude is old (38). He can probably be had for whatever contracts the Nuggets want to send that way, such as Eddie or JR+ Atkins (and the Clips would then waive Atkins.) Another possibility is that Sam agrees to a buy out and the Nuggets sign him that way.

On court pluses:
Veteran point guard leadership. Hits big shots in big games. Can come in and run starting point guard day one. Would instantly be the biggest leader on the team. Dances around court mimicking an emormous set of nuts after he hits a big three. Lets AI run at 2 guard.

On court minuses:
Old as dirt. Defense is lacking these days. Can’t run like AC can. Can’t guard elite 2 guards. Old as dirt. Do you really want to resign him after the season? Old as dirt.

Further considerations:
Would add toughness and professionalism to a team sorely in need of both. Has greatly improved every team he has gone to. Tough as nails.

Final thought:

If the Nuggets can get him cheap, he’d be a great addition.


Andre Miller

Contract:
Nearly 10 mil per, expiring a year after this year.

On court pluses:
Solid defender, pure point guard, would move AI to 2 guard and is tall enough to guard opponents’ shooting guards. Will pass first and will improve the rest of the team at both ends of the floor. Karl loves him.

On court minuses:
Cannot shoot the three, which creates a problem, since the Nuggets have few 3 point shooters in the starting unit. Doesn’t naturally run.

Further considerations:
Would the Nuggets really make a move to get him back? Would have to trade away Kmart, Nene or Camby to make the deal work. Philly might take Nene for him. Tough to make that sacrifice. Might have to be a three-team deal.

Final thought:
Even with the shooting and running issues, should be a solid upgrade for the team, providing you don’t have to mortgage the future to get him.


Other interesting possibilities:
Calderon for LK (give up future solid three that is stuck behind CA for a promising PG – but the Nuggets probably get the short end of the talent stick here.)

Crittenton (trade restriction) or Navarro for JR or Eddie (neither has enough skill to impact this season, but could be a PG of the future.)

1 comment:

Jeremy said...

Great job analyzing all the potential options. To be honest, the only player I really want off of that list is Mike Miller.

Artest is exactly what they need on defense, but as you pointed out he is exactly what they do not need on offense, another player who thrives on isos.

Kidd is an impossibility due to his contract. I was glad to see you call him out on D. Everyone still clings to the belief he is a good defender.

Cassell is too much of a shoot first player. I love the testicle dance, but he would not be able to push the pace and is a sieve on defense.

Andre Miller is interesting, but he cannot shoot and he shoots a little too much.

I love Javaris Crittendon, but I do not think Memphis wants to trade any of their point guards until they can get a better feel for what they have.