When it's Wednesday Every Day

Why the Nuggets can’t get over the hump.

The Nuggets are barely on the right side of the playoff pool, sliding around from 6th to 9th depending on the day of the week. On paper, they have massive talent, with reps in the West All-Star starting 5, the defensive player of the year (who some feel should have been in the All-Star game), a solid point guard, a former Eastern Conference All-Star returning to his previous form, and a very solid bench. Even without Nene and Atkins, both out for extended periods, Denver is one of the most talented teams in the league on paper.

So what are they doing lurking around the bottom of the playoff race?

Granted, injuries have hurt, with Nene and Atkins out for extended periods and others, most notably Martin, out for spot duty. Melo has missed 5 games, and Camby a handful as well. This, however, does not explain the problem. Just ask LA, who is still succeeding with Bynum out, or Washington, exceeding expectations on a skeleton crew.

What is going on with the Nuggets?

Glad you asked. It ain’t one thing. It’s a number of items, all increasing the degree of difficulty beyond what it has to be.

Franchise cornerstone, and unstoppable scoring force Carmelo Anthony.

Yeah, hate to say it, but Melo is part of the problem. He’s an incredible scorer, who is completely unstoppable one-on-one. He has raised his defensive effort this year, and it’s helped. He also has begun to assert himself into the rebounding sub-game, and he is now a 25-8 guy most nights. I think we lose track of how incredibly rare this is. Melo is the franchise.

He also has no idea how to play basketball.

It isn’t his fault. Nobody ever taught him. Not on the AAU circuit, not at Oak Hill (laughable), not Jimmy B. Karl has started to, and it’s had two unintended consequences on the offense. He holds the ball too long, and he’s lost his eff-you aggressiveness. We don’t see the kind of extended periods that he used to flaunt in high school, college, and even his rookie year, where he just dominated the offensive end. That has been harnessed by a desire to play the game the right way, and that’s commendable. Now, however, he needs to learn how to stay in control and still unleash what he is capable of, in the way Wade won the championship, or how LBJ scored the last 25 points to win a playoff game.

He also stalls the ball when he gets it on offense. This slowing down of the game allows him to make good decisions, but it also robs him and his team of the flow on the offensive end. Melo needs to get past this habit, and soon.

It’s not just Melo. This is a team of players with weird little flaws that hurt their performance. AI and his need to score with the ball in his hands, and his size on defense. Camby’s inability to bang inside or play one-on-one D. Carter and his shooting history. JR and his incomprehension of team play. These guys need to make a commitment to fix these little, mostly mental, flaws in their game. Increased attention to problem number 3, below, would hide a lot of these issues.

Veteran leadership.

There really isn’t any. Camby is the closest, but he’s not a dominant personality. AI has been through the wars, but he’s never been a team leader through anything but example. Melo is just too young, and has never been deep into the playoffs. Martin? Maybe, as he works back in. There is just a void here.

It shows up in a lack of execution down the stretch, in wavering commitment, in a loss of workmanlike performance.

Plays like AC whipping a crosscourt lob pass into three defenders up three with 45 seconds left in the Utah game. Halves like the last few games, with opponents shooting 55% in the first two quarters. Plays drawn up by Karl breaking down immediately when the players try to execute them. In loses to middle of the road teams that they should beat, and quotes from players along the lines of “we need to maintain our intensity from the opening tip instead of waiting for them to hit us first.”

As an aside, this is why a player like Sam Cassell could be such an important addition to the Nuggets.

Teamwork

Down the stretch against Utah, Denver and the Jazz are essentially trading baskets. If you have it on tape, go back and watch. Nearly ever basket the Nuggets made was a phenomenal individual play, like Melo’s baseline turnaround at the shot clock buzzer, or Martin’s catch and finish of AI’s drop pass. Nearly every basket the Jazz made was a straightforward basketball play, like Deron’s wide open three or Harpring’s jumper off the pick. The Nuggets make the game harder by not working together.

This is deeply ingrained in the mindset of the team. AI creates for himself. Melo holds the ball and stops the flow, then makes his own scoring opportunities. Camby takes his top of the key jumper. This list goes on. Denver is 7th in the league in assists, but when this stat is pace adjusted, they fall near the bottom of the league. Meanwhile, they give up the most assists in the NBA.

It shows up on defense also. On the Deron trey to tie the Jazz game in regulation, Iverson ran into the pick, then looked as if he had no idea what to do. By the time he gathered himself and looked around to see an open Deron, it was too late. The Nuggets, for whatever reason, still have not gelled into a cohesive group on either end of the court.

The fix? Simple. These three items need to change. The players know they need to change. Habits are hard to break, however, and it’s an uphill battle. You can trade for someone like Cassell, and that can help quite a bit, but in the end, the players have to make the shift one by one. Perhaps steady playing time as a unit with all the pieces intact will take care of the issues. Perhaps they are pacing themselves till the All-Star game, and will string together Ws after the break, as they often do.

In any case, until these issues are addressed, the Nuggets are up against their glass ceiling in the West, a good team that could be great, but can’t quite get there.

Players avoiding their bad habits, someone stepping up to lead the team into battle every minute of every game, and playing as a cohesive unit. Every great team scores high marks in these areas.

That’s what it will take. Watch the improvement in those areas, and watch the win-loss column. They’ll move together.