21! (part 3)

Schedule Comparison:

Between the three teams, the first thing that jumps out is the difference in the quality of the opposition. Denver plays 7 teams above .500, with the winning percentage of the ten teams averaging .544. Utah, on the other hand, plays only winning teams, with a winning percentage of .473. Portland is in the middle at 5 winning teams and a percentage of .515.

This would give a decided advantage to Utah over the next three weeks.

Interestingly, of the three teams, the Nuggets have performed best against their future 10 foes, with a mark of 9-2 this year so far. Utah is close behind at 9-3, while the Trailblazers settle for 8-6.

The Nuggets are the only ones of the three that could reasonably lose 7 games in the span (which is probably reduced to 6 with the Portland win.) The other two are more likely to bottom out around .500. With the Nuggets 2 wins behind the Jazz, it is very possible that that lead could grow over the next three weeks to a 3 or 4 game advantage. While we might have expected Portland to gain on Denver, they may have given up that chance with the loss at home on Monday.

Most likely, we will see Utah extend their now one game lead of the Nuggets to 2 or three over the next 10 games. This means that tonight’s game between the Jazz and Nuggets is huge. If the Nuggets win, the teams probably stay even over the period, with the Jazz maintaining their one game lead, but if the Jazz come into Denver and knock off the Nuggets, then the lead may be 3 games or so come the last week of February.

As for Portland, we would have expected them to start sliding away this week, but their schedule affords them 4 games against terrible teams, so with just one or two wins against better competition, they will stay in the hunt.

At the end of this stretch there will be just over 30 games left. Both the Jazz and the Trailblazers have had major win streaks this year, while the Nuggets, as yet, have not. Such a streak could very well determine the conference champ. Denver has a history of such streaks in recent years, usually late in the season. Is the team waiting till after the All-Star break? They have in the past.

We’ll check back in 21 days. It’s getting interesting.