Do the Nuggets really need an upgrade at 2 guard?

Otherwise known as: should JR Smith be let out of the doghouse?

As the Nuggets look at possible moves that could improve the team prior to the Feb 21st deadline, most of their focus is on getting the ball out of Iverson’s hands and bringing an exceptional point guard in for him to work with. With that looking like a more and more distant possibility, attention has turned to available 2 guards, such as Mike Miller of Memphis. However, as was shown again last night against Miami, the Nuggets have a potentially explosive 2 guard already on the roster in JR Smith. He has been in and out of the doghouse more times than we can count, but he’s now starting to get serious burn, especially when his shot is dropping.

Our question: Should he be getting serious minutes every night?

Pros:
On court, there are a number of things JR can do very well. His 3 pointing shooting percentage has increased every season in the league, with only his rookie year 4 years ago being substandard. So far this year he is shooting around 39% from downtown. That’s the highest percentage on the Nuggets for players with more than a few shots.

He also shoots very well from the stripe, at around 80% (about the same as Melo) and fairly well from the field for someone who takes so many threes, at nearly 43%.

His assist to turnover ratio is about 1:1, which is solid for a shooting 2. He brings electric athleticism, an ability to run with anyone in the league, and a positive, energetic attitude.

While his plus/minus is only about a +1, it is on the upswing.

Cons:
So what’s kept him off the court? Two things. First, he makes terrible decisions both with and without the ball. He plays exactly the same way in the 4th quarter as he does in the 1st, and when games tighten up, he tends to take risks on both offense and defense usually reserved for the beginning of the game, not during crunch time. He’ll force threes, gamble for steals, and even miss a forced dunk here and there.

Secondly, he has been terrible on defense. He has the physical tools to get the job done, but his body positioning is terrible, he can’t seem to think ahead, he gets caught in bad positions, and he tends to give away costly fouls. If you could merge AC with JR, you’d have a great defender. Smith needs to concentrate on learning how to play D, not just on giving hard effort.

Trends:
The last couple of games have been interesting for JR, as these trends have seemingly started to change. He found himself on the court for the end of regulation against Miami, and, although he had had a hot hand all night, he passed up several threes he would have taken in the past, getting the ball to Melo or AI. Obviously, Karl’s preaching is starting to affect the way he plays. On the defensive end, he was doing a good job of staying at home and playing defense with his feet. However, he started to get toasted near the end, and Karl yanked him in favor of AC (who, by the way, played about as well against Wade on the defensive end as you could possible ask for). But he’s learning.

Prognosis:
Really for the first time in more than a year, JR is starting to show flashes of a maturing player. With JR’s skill set and talent he can be a huge contributor to the club, but he needs to continue to get more and more under control. With a backcourt of AI, Carter, and a maturing, consistent JR Smith, you could have a solid three-man rotation that could be juggled based on the opponent. For this to happen, JR has to continue to improve his defense, but at least on the offensive end, he is beginning to play within the confines team ball.

The Nuggets are 7-3 over the last 10. They are starting play harder, more consistent basketball. With the upheaval their roster has seen over the last 2 years, you can make a case that what they should really do at the trade deadline is stand pat and wait for the team to gel. 31-19 is on pace for right around the best record in Nuggets history.

Perhaps the Nuggets start to lean more on a maturing JR Smith, wait for the return of Nene, and continue the improvement they have shown in the area of teamwork. A case can be made that JR is beginning to flash signs that he could become the player his body skills have always alluded to.

And he is, after all, only 22. He should be a rookie right now.

Conclusion:
Time to get JR some run. As there currently doesn’t seem to be any outside help coming, the Nuggets need a dynamic backcourt contributor to energize the team, and he’s the only option they have. It could end up being a great option, come playoff time, if he can get in the preparation work now.